Newell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS66 KMFR 201158
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
458 AM PDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs...VFR prevails across the region this
morning, with the exception of LIFR along the coast south of Gold
Beach. It`s possible for a brief period LIFR conditions north of
Cape Blanco between 12-15z this morning, but it should be short-
lived. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail through this evening with another
round of gusty winds this afternoon. A front will move through the
region later this evening and overnight, bringing IFR conditions to
the coast later this afternoon, and low end VFR conditions west of
the Cascades this evening and overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM PDT Sun Jul 20 2025/

DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will be the main feature and
weather influencer for the remainder of the forecast period.
Today through Tuesday, the pattern will consist of an upper level
trough over the Pacific Northwest, resulting in near normal
temperatures (coolest temperatures of the forecast period) along
with precipitation chances and increased cloud cover. Late Tuesday
into Wednesday, the pattern will transition as the PacNW trough
shifts eastward, but lingering energy forms a cut-off low off the
California coast and gradually meanders eastward through the end
of the week. This pattern will maintain near normal temperatures,
along with thunderstorm chances across the area for the latter
half of the week.

Skies are clear across almost the whole forecast area this morning.
There is an area of fog along the coast near Brookings/Gold Beach,
but clear skies otherwise. Low pressure lingers over British
Columbia this morning, and some mid-higher level cloud cover
associated with this trough is gradually edging southward into the
forecast area. The overall pattern doesn`t change much until later
today into Monday, so overall conditions will be very similar to
yesterday though with some subtle changes. Another round of gusty
west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon/evening again.
Temperatures will also be fairly similar to Saturday`s reading,
though slightly cooler west of the Cascades. The other difference
today will be increasing cloud cover through the day.

Later this evening and overnight, a reinforcing shortwave will dig
this trough farther southward and bring the center of the trough
over northern OR and WA. This will bring a front (weak by winter
standards, modest by summer standards) through the region tonight
into early Monday morning. It`s possible to see some returns on
radar along the coast late this afternoon, but the chances of any
light measurable precipitation don`t really arrive until this
evening and overnight. The front is pretty broken up as it moves
across southern Oregon and our region will be at the tail end of it.
Models show it holding together after it gets east of the Cascades,
so the best chances for any measurable precipitation will be along
the coast (15-25%) and then across northern Klamath (10-15%) and
eastern Lake Counties (20-30%).

The main front looks to be east of the forecast area by late Monday
morning. An uptick in shower activity expected Monday afternoon and
evening mainly east of the Cascades, with some isolated
thunderstorms also possible. Monday will also be the "coolest" day
of the forecast period, with afternoon highs anticipated to be 5 to
10 degrees cooler than normal. Winds should weaker on Monday
compared to this weekend with the exception of southeastern areas
(Modoc/SE Lake Counties).

Tuesday looks to be a transition day as the trough elongates over
the area. Energy gets cut off from the parent low, forming a low
pressure off the coast of California - which will become the focus
of our attention for the remainder of the week. If you`ve been
following along this summer, you`ll note that this is a classic
thunderstorm pattern for the region. There remains differences in
position/location/strength of this low pressure, which will have
implications on exactly when and where thunderstorm chances are. We
continue to lean on the National Blend of Models for this time
frame, which is starting to introduce thunder potential for the
latter half of the week, but have also incorporated other guidance
in attempt to fine tune some details where possible.

Further adjustments are almost certain, but at this time it remains
consistent from the day shift that Thursday looks to be the focus of
thunderstorm activity with the most favorable dynamics/instability.
There could be some isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as the trough
is elongating, which could provide enough lift to fire off some
storms across the East Side, but on Wedensday low pressure is just
establishing itself and there really won`t have been enough time to
draw up the unstable air from the south. Thunderstorm chances could
continue into Friday when models show the cut-off low being swept
back up into the westerlies. Given this is still 5-6 days out, much
could change in the forecast depending on model trends. Overall, the
pattern does favor thunderstorms east of the Cascades and across
northern California for the latter half of the week. Stay tuned for
updates. Beyond the end of the week, models show a broad trough over
the eastern Pacific which would maintain southwesterly flow over the
region and near normal temperatures.

MARINE...Updated 145 AM PDT Sunday, July 20, 2025...A weak
thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds
south of Cape Blanco through the morning. This will result in low
end advisory level winds and steep seas south of Port Orford.
Winds weaken through the day as an upper level trough settles over
the region and disrupts the thermal trough pattern. Thereafter,
relatively light winds and seas are expected through much of next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 330 AM PDT Sunday, July 20, 2025... The
forecast area will remain at the base of an upper level trough
centered over southern British Columbia through this afternoon. This
will bring conditions quite similar to Saturday, and fire weather
conditions will remain elevated today across the Modoc (gusty
winds/low RH). Despite another round of gusty west to Northwest winds
this afternoon/evening, the remainder of the area will see slightly
higher daytime humidities (20-30%) today that will mitigate near
critical conditions.

Later today and overnight, the trough will deepen over northern
OR/WA, and send a front through the area. Precipitation chances (15-
30%) will be best along the coast and east of the Cascades, though
precipitation amounts will generally be only a few hundreths at
best. The front will be east of the region by Monday morning and
Monday will be the "coolest" day of the forecast period with the
highest daytime humidities. Showers are expected east of the
Cascades Monday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms possible over
northern Klamath/Lake Counties.

By Tuesday, the trough elongates over the region, resulting in
another day of "cooler" temperatures. Guidance shows energy from
this trough forming another low pressure off the coast of California
around mid-week. This pattern would result in the return of
thunderstorms to the forecast for the remainder of the week. There
are differences on the position/location/strength of this low, so
stay tuned for updates to the forecast as the time gets closer and
see discussion above for current thoughts on timing location for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$